Guinness Men’s Six Nations: England v Scotland
Venue: Allianz Stadium | Date: Saturday, 22 February | Kick-off: 16:45 GMT
One has to question whether there has been something peculiar in England’s atmosphere this past week—a mysterious element that induces a warped sense of reality and exaggerated confidence.
Courtney Lawes, the outstanding former England forward, asserted that he couldn’t imagine Scotland keeping up with England provided the home side delivered a solid seven or eight out of ten display at Twickenham on Saturday.
“It’s about time we proved that we are the superior team,” he added.
That’s a daring statement, considering Scotland have triumphed in the past four encounters and have only suffered one defeat in seven Calcutta Cup battles under Gregor Townsend, surpassing their major competitors by 19 tries to 13 in that span. But regardless…
“I simply cannot envision England falling short,” wrote Sir Clive Woodward, under a headline forecasting a demolition of the Scotland forwards.
This England pack is formidable, and maybe they are poised to dominate Scotland, but as of now, we have yet to witness much consistent evidence of them bullying rival packs at this level. England 2003, they are not.
Woodward, to be fair, did not compose the headline, but he did declare: “England will prevail with significant ease.”
Perhaps they will. Scotland might lose the physical battle and struggle to unleash the weapons that have tormented England in this fixture.
On the other hand, Scotland might create chaos once more. Given recent history, one would be inclined to back the latter rather than the former. There is actual proof to support it.
On what grounds will England cruise to victory? Because the contest is at Twickenham? Possibly, but Scotland have emerged victorious in two and drawn one of the past three Calcutta Cups in London.
Because England defeated France? A remarkable win and a momentum boost, no doubt, but is there not an argument that France’s biggest obstacle for half of that game was… France?
Because England have turned a new leaf under head coach Steve Borthwick? Potentially.
They have exceptional players, and every bookmaker heavily favors them to triumph on Saturday, but the same was said about them coming of age when they overcame Ireland last season—a sensational win but, as it turned out, a misleading one.
‘Underdog Label Favors Scotland’
Amid the thorough analysis, some of the narratives about this Scotland side and its standing in the rugby world have been bizarre.
Over the past week, in various publications, Scotland have been depicted as frail up front (they were outmuscled by Ireland, but it was a single match against a world-class team); incapable of disrupting the rugby order (hmm, four wins out of four); and unworthy of a seat at rugby’s elite table. Excuse me?
Apparently, they only find motivation for clashes against England, their excessive performances driven by their intense dislike of the Red Rose. Really?
In the same breath, there’s talk of all the South African and Australian-born players in the team, and the gradual reduction of its true Scottish identity.
Which is it, though? A squad that radiates Scottish pride against England while simultaneously lacking Scottish roots due to foreign-born players? You can’t have it both ways.
Also, it appears there is fan disinterest. Scotland have won nothing in 26 years, yet Murrayfield attracted 60,000 spectators against Portugal last season and is a full house against practically everyone else. Indifference?
There has been top-tier analysis and the usual lighthearted banter that is essential to Calcutta Cup week, but some opinions in the build-up have been borderline absurd.
“It feels a bit like anxiety about a potential fifth straight loss,” says former Scotland hooker Fraser Brown, a veteran of five Calcutta Cups, including the 2023 triumph at Twickenham.
“The overall sentiment will fuel the type of underdog mentality that Scotland have successfully used to propel performances over the last several years.
“The favourites tag still doesn’t sit comfortably with Scotland, so the English press are probably doing the coaching staff and the squad a favor.”
‘Woodward’s View is Outdated’
So where will this clash be decided?
“The strength of England’s substitutes might be the decisive factor,” says Brown, who points to injuries to second-row duo Scott Cummings and Max Williamson, and the absence of hooker George Turner, who started all four of the victories in a row.
“For Scotland, the scrum will have to be solid. It has wavered at times over the opening two matches, but it must hold firm, and I imagine Zander Fagerson will stay on the field as long as possible.
“The lineout needs to sharpen up too. Scotland require possession. They lacked a platform against Ireland.
“The breakdown will be critical. It was sloppy against Ireland and Italy, and England have several breakdown threats both starting and on the bench.
“It’s not only about losing possession on the ground; Scotland can’t afford slow recycling. Speedy ball movement will disrupt England’s defensive structure.”
And what about the claim that Scotland’s pack couldn’t bust through a wet paper bag? Brown dismisses it outright.
“Scotland’s forwards were outmuscled by Ireland, but nobody was saying that in the autumn when they stood toe-to-toe with the Springboks for 50 minutes, or when they dominated Ireland last year, or after they secured the past four Calcutta Cup wins,” he argues.
Scotland faltered that day, says Brown, but England aren’t as strong as Ireland. He anticipates a tight encounter.
No Woodward-esque bravado? “Can we just retire him?” he quips. “His views on the modern game are outdated and uninformed.” Not exactly a fan, then.
